UNIVERSAL SIGNAL
The lazy man's way to stock market wealth.
 
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For the current results and secondary updates of the New System please go here...

Results for 2009 Universal Signal: Below are the closed trades for 2009. There were only three trade signals + one ongoing trade, which is still active  as of 1.16.2010.

QQQQ 11,2%                                                                     
DIA 19,4%
SPY 18.5%
QLD 24.5%
DDM 14.7%
SSO 20.4%
BGU 32.8%
TNA 39,9%
QID -9.9%
DXD 16.9%
SDS 9.8%
TZA 14.3%
PSQ -2.3
DOG 10.2%
SH 7.4%

Below is a piece I loaned from Chris Mayer, which illustrates very clearly that even the best analyst and banks and other institutions that one would think to have at least some idea of what may happen to the price of oil actually don’t have a glue. You will do just as well by asking your next door neighbor.

“Of course, no one knows what the price of oil will be,” Chris Mayer admits, “but there is no shortage of forecasts. Goldman Sachs says it will be $95 by the end of 2010. Deutsche Bank says $65. They are all guessing."

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

Results for 2008. As you know 2008 was a very tough year for the most investors and traders, and so it was for me too. I made some critical mistakes, my system worked, but I had very tough time of adjusting my mental attitude to bear market rules. What did I do? I overruled my signal one time, and that’s all it took to mess up my game totally. So I 'abandoned' my trial portfolio and ended the year being in cash. (My new system created a Buy signal at 12.9.08.)   

NOTE: As of January 2010 I issued a sell signal for the 2008 portfolio. Had you held the ETFs that I recommended you would have made 30 to 60% profit on these positions. So in a way even though my 2008 portfolio was a fiasco at the time, in the long run it would have been profitable.

Most importantly I also learned that in these very volatile times it’s critical to protect your principal. As you know thousands of people face very uncertain future as their retirement accounts have been wiped out. Many people that were set for life; now cannot even dream about retiring, but are forced to work until very late in their lives. So I am making my very best to protect my own and your capital so that we will not face the same fate as so many others do. I am putting in new safeguards that will protect our savings.  

So I have refined my system to fit better to the volatile bear market conditions. If I have learned anything that is that; no system will work all the time and we must always stay on top of things and be ready to change our way of trading.  

 

Result for 2007 (More 2007 results also on the 'What to Trade' page.)

Below ate the results for the year 2007. They are close to spectacular. It was a true bull year as were the few previous years too. I stared my service just about the worst time possible; November 2007. Just when the big bad bear hit us like a ton of bricks. 

My system is great for both; bull or bear markets, so I don't mind even though I would rather had the bull market continue. This bear may turn out to be really voracious beast that will eat everything in sight. That's why it's very important to protect your capital and be ready to short.

 


The signal on this page is delayed; don't use it for trading!

B = Buy. S = Sell. C/B = Cover and Buy. S/S = Sell and Short. C/C = Cover and Cash.

Date = month / day / year.

# Trade Date QQQQ
Open $
QQQQ % QLD
%
FXI
%
1 B 6.3.07 42.58 x x x
2 S / S 5.7.07 46.65 9.5 19.5 18.6
3 C / B 5.29.07 46.49 0.3 1.1 0.0
4 S / S 6.6.07 47.37 1.9 3.4 2.4
5 C /B 6.29.07 47.79 0.9 -1.4 -12
6 S / S 7.19.07 50.41 5.5 11 7
7 C / B 8.20.07 46.48 7.8 18.8 7
8 S / S 10.12.07 52.90 13.8 27.8 54.3
9 C / B 11.30.07 52.21 1.3 2.8 3.7
Total Long  and Short 2007 40.7 82.9 81
Total  Long  only 2007 30.7 61.6 82.3
Buy and  hold 2007 26.6 29 43.9
10 S / S 1.7.08 48.40 -7.2 -19.8 -20.3
11 C / C 1.25.08 44.19 8.7 11.4 12.4
12 B 1.29.08 44.56 x x x
13            


Note: The QQQQ is not the most profitable trading vehicle you can trade with my system, but it is what my system follows so that's why I have it here. You can trade QLD and many others instead of it. 

Even though my signal goes short; you should not go short unless you know what you are doing. My system is 100% on the market Long/Short on TimerTrack to see what the results would be at the end of the year. This way there could be some more small losses, but just maybe a couple good bull runs will cover the whip saw losses? We'll see! 

If you traded QQQQ long only you would have made about 30% and that's no hay considering how safely and easily you would have made it. To make 30% year after year with a little risk is something that only a few pros have been able to accomplish... let's hope I can continue wining streak. Many funds loose money even in a good year, and most pros are lucky to beat the S&P. 

If you would make 30% a year for 20 years and your starting capital is only $10K, you would still end up with almost 4 million dollars! That would be a nice sum of money for retirement, don't you agree? Don't underestimate the power of compounding. 

Will the results be this good in the future? I am sure there are going to be some whipsaw and other unexpected problems ahead of us. I estimate that up to 1/3 of the signals my system produces can be false/whipsaw. All in all 2008 is for sure going to be a lot more challenging for all of us than 2007. The key is to protect your capital. 


Below the results for 2007 (10 months) on 4 sample portfolios. 

The results are LONG ONLY except short QQQQ or Super Short ProFund QID. 

S-QQQQ = Short QQQQ

L-QID = Long QID, which means same as shorting QQQQ.

(You have to be careful with QID and other inverse ETFs, because they can be confusing. When you go long on them, you actually short the general market.)

#1 % #2 % #3 % #4 %
QQQQ 30.7 EWH 44.6 DDM 47.8 QLD 82.9
GLD  27.4 GLD 24.4 QLD 82.9 FXI 82.3
EWT 24 EEM 52.5 EEM 52.5 GDX 58.2
MDY 27.3 GG 68.3 SSO 38.2 EWA 76.9
S-QQQQ 10.3 L-QID 17.2 L-QID 17.2 L-QID 17.2
Total 130 %   207 %   239 %   320 %
Profit $13,000   $20,700   $23,900   $32,000

Above means that if you had $40,000 investment capital and had invested $10,000 on each of the 4 stocks Long only and would have shorted on QQQQ or QID with $10K you could have made a profit of $13,000 with the portfolio #1

Your $40K capital would have grown:

... to $53K with the portfolio #1. 

... to $63K with the portfolio #2. 

... to $64K with the portfolio #3. 

... to $72K with the portfolio #4. 

The above information points clearly out that 2007 was a bull year (primary trend was up). In some cases Long/Short results were actually less than Long only. But if we go into a bear market the long profits will evaporate and the short profits will increase a great deal because the primary trend will be down. That's why it is important to be ready to short when the markets go into bear market.

If you had the nerves to trade Long and Short: QLD, QID, GDX and GG the results would have been: (348%) $34,800 profit on a $40K investment capital. That's a profit of 85%.

 

Below some more long only results for 2007.

Symbol %
QLD 61.6
MDY 27.3
QID 64.4
EEM 52.5
EWS 38.2
EWA 54.8
EWT 24
EWH 44.6
DDM 47.8
SSO 38.2
FXI 82.3
GOOG 41.4
MSFT 20.4
EWM 43.8
SLV 33.3
GLD 27.4
GG 68.3
GDX 58.4

Below the first 12 Universal trading signals.

 

 

NOTE: Double check all the numbers. The results are hypothetical. In real life trading no one would always get the exact market open price. There are risks involved with investing, including possible loss of principal. The results don't take into account any brokerage fees, dividends, interest or taxes that are associated with investing. Also, past performance is no guarantee or indicator for results in the future and each individual is always solely responsible for his / her own investment decisions and which equities or financial instruments to trade. 

 

 

 

 

 

© 2007 - 2010 Timo Yla-Soininmaki