I don't want to jam your email box with a lot of emails; so on this page I will indicate secondary buy and short signals etc; sometimes it can take months between the signals and this way you can get on a ongoing signal. More about that how to get on a ongoing signal see here...    

Also here you can see the results of the Lazy Man's Portfolio and my long-term signals and portfolios too. I will email only the new trade signals for the Lazy Man's Portfolio and not for the long term signals; check this page regularly if you are interested in them. 

Even though all the indicators and TA are screaming for a trade; the market can reverse itself at any moment!   

NOTE: Nothing on my email alerts or on this website is intended as an advice to trade stocks or ETFs. This is a journal of trading ideas that I personally trade. You are responsible of your own trading decisions! For the complete Terms of Use and the Privacy Policy click here...

UNIVERSAL SIGNAL - The Lazy Man's Portfolio 

This is a medium term trading system that is based on QQQQ daily TA. I try to keep the trading to minimum, but still get good results. Depending on the market conditions there could be a new signal once a month or one in several months. I like to trade 5 to 8 times a year to keep the stress down. This is not a fast day or every week trading system. In some special occasions I may go cash, but all in all I try to stay in the market all the time. Because of this I may suffer some whipsaw losses, but I will not miss any big moves and getting early on a big move will pay back all the whipsaw losses. (My email trade signal alerts will give you all the information you need to trade my signals.)

CURRENT TRADE SIGNAL 

# 4. 9. at open cover shorts and go long QQQQ, QLD, TNA and GLD or stay cash if you want to play it safe until we get some clarity as to where this market wants to go. (I will go cash on all my long-term portfolios except GLD.) 

NOTES: 

9.4. I think this rally will continue on Monday (Tuesday in US) and maybe even beyond, but would not have my hopes too up for a new bull market. We have an initial buy signal, but it needs to be confirmed.

9.3. It looks like the rally has some legs... no official buy signal as of yet... let's wait and see how far up it goes. Use this as an opportunity to get rid of any longs you many have. I think the smart money will sell into the strength. 

8.28. Pretty strong rally... it's most likely just a relief rally from a badly oversold condition, but since it was pretty strong, it may continue for a few days. I will update more on Monday before open if something comes up. 

8.25. Let's hope this little rally that might be getting started will last for a few days so we can get rid of any longs we may still have... I am stuck with two of them.

8.24. It looked like the markets desperately tried to get up for the last gasp of air, but failed. One of my indicators sensed that there was definitely a desperate attempt to go up, but ultimately market just gave up.  I am now going short; closing even all my long term long positions and short term GLD too. I will not go short on GLD though. There still could be a weak bounce this week. 

8.16. We want especially bear markets to be over with fast, but that's not the case in real world. They tend to last for a long time as this site below proves. This is why I think that we will basically stay in a range bound market and or have some sever drops in the future, and this kind of market condition will last until 2020.   http://pragcap.com/secular-bears-tend-to-be-long-events

Real-time results Lazy Man's Portfolio (LongS = Long on Inverse short ETF)

Below are the signals/results for 4 long-term systems, which I am testing. These are approximate back tested results; I will add the real time signals as they come. All 4 signals are based on different set of weekly and monthly TA. Even though they are weekly or monthly they don't necessarily trade at the end of a week or a month. These signals can be used as secondary signals and /or confirmation of the current trend. These signals might also be used for other ETFs: QLD, QID, TZA and TNA etc. but do check how well they match against each other before using these signals for any other ETF. 

INDU - DIA Long-term 

COMPQ - QQQQ Long-term

SPX - SPY Medium Long-term

SPX - SPY Long-term

#7 - 8.24.10

GOLD - GLD Long-Term (This long-term signal can also be used for physical Gold, even though I don't recommend that you trade in and out physical gold at this time. This system has not been tested in volatile trading condition: so I am not sure how well it will work in a highly volatile trading environment; it may create a lot of whipsaw. So if we enter into a volatile situation in gold market; let's use this long-term signal as a general indicator of gold health, and not as a trading signal. So far PMs have been going up pretty much nonstop with hardly any volatility since 2001.) You can also trade: GDX or BGU, which is 3x bull ETF. When mining stocks perform better than gold that is a good sign. 

About the 1000 point crash on May 6th. "Investigators are still tracking the cause of today's sudden 15-minute 700-point Dow decline at around 2:47 pm. Perhaps some trader pushed a "B" for billion instead of an "M" for million.  Maybe it was a computerized sell signal run amok. Whatever the cause, something sent stocks like Procter & Gamble down from $61 to $39 in an instant."

For me this was a real kick in the rear reminder to follow every single signal my system creates and not to second guess them as I have done before. Two times in the past two years I didn't follow my own signals and both times it cost me dearly.... huge! I was trying to avoid a few percent whipsaw losses, but end up losing big time. Whipsaw is part of trading like taxes are working, and I will now gladly take all the whipsaw that comes my way no matter how much they annoy me. 

I want to (again) be on the right (short) side of the market when we have another 1000 + point drop; but if I start second guessing my signals I might end up being on the wrong side. This drop was a wake up call for all of us that in today's extremely fast moving markets you can lose half of your portfolio in 30 minutes. And even if you happen to be on your computer when it happens there is no one to take your trade, as happened during the this 1000 point drop.

Especially in times like what we are living through right now we MUST take every single dip seriously and if it looks like the markets may dip further we MUST go short even though this may mean a whipsaw loss if the markets won't end up dipping further after all. The one time that we will be on the short (right) side when the market crashes some 1000 + points and won't recover will make up for all the whipsaw we have suffered before times 10. 

Also something to think about hard stops: Many people lost a lot of money by having hard stops because of course they were stopped out of their positions. These stops could have been as big as 25%.; as many trading newsletters recommend. Also these hard stops would ruined many newsletters' performance had they calculated in the stop losses they would have had in real time trading. But all the newsletters that I know of ignored this 1000 point drop. In other words their portfolios don't reflect what would really happened if someone had followed their advice during this drop.  

GOLD

During this same day we had the 1000 point drop gold was up $33, but note that HUI and PM stocks were not up that much. Stocks are stocks are stocks even PM stocks. So if the general markets go down they will most likely take PM stocks with them. This emphasizes the importance of physical PMs and if you don't like physical PMs you can trade GLD, DGP, SGOL and GTU  because these instruments follow the price of the actual gold and not the stock market as much. 

Also note that previously  physical gold went usually down with the markets, but now it looks like there has been a shift; markets down - gold up. Before there was a lot of gold buying when investors had money and were investing in stock markets; so some of them bought gold as a diversification. But now it seems that recent gold buying has been as a hedge against possible inflation and monetary crisis in Europe etc. During times like this there can easily be mad rush to PMs. 

There is a growing group of people who are convinced that USD is doomed if things keep on going as they are; meaning US government dept, spending etc. They also say that gold will benefit from this uncertainty, which I agree on. But there is only so much gold and people will need another (safe) place to put their billions. Investors are losing confidence on Euroland and England. Asia, Russia are still for the most part unknown quantities especially in the long run, then there are Switzerland, Norway and some other smaller currencies, but they also are limited as far as quantity is concern. So what's left? USD and gold, silver and platinum. If I was a banker with billions to invest to currencies; I would still trust Americas ability to deal with hardship and to pull out of the recession more than any other big nation. US has proven its ability to go through tough times many times before and it has always end up on top again. It still is the leader of the world in many ways and even if China surpasses it on selling junk; who cares. So my thinking is that if times get rally tough both PMs and USD may end up going up big time. From time to time they already have been advancing at the same time. 

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